eMarketer collated projections from a number of different sources who were speculating (more or less) on where digital advertising would be heading this year and the next few years.These projections were all over the place.
"Due to the rapidly changing economic conditions, a number of the leading sources that track—and predict—online advertising have been revising their numbers, too. It can be difficult to keep up. So here is an overview of what everyone is now estimating. To start with, eMarketer had predicted an increase of 8.9% for 2009, but now predicts that the rate of growth for US Internet ad spending in 2009 will be approximately one-half the rate of growth for 2008—only 4.5% this year."
eMarketer does what they do best, put it all on a chart or graph:
The above ranged from -6% drop by UBS in 2009 vs 2008 to an optimistic 18.1% growth prediction by ZenithOptimedia. Of course UBS guessed in Feb 2009 and Zenith made their bets in Dec 2008.
For a reality check, we can look at the 1Q 2009 numbers put out by The New York Times Company for 1Q09 vs. 1Q08:
- Total Advertising Revenue decreased by 27.0%
- Total Internet revenues decreased 5.6 percent to
$78.2 million from$82.9 million - Internet advertising revenues declined 6.1 percent to
$67.6 million from$72.0 million .
Wow, if this keeps up, even UBS might be a tad on the optimistic side. Anyhow, everyone knows that Q1 was going to be bad. And that Q2 will likely be the same or worst. The recession should bottom out this quarter and digital should start to see modest gains in the last 2 quarters of the year. Let's keep our finger crossed.
Posts
0 comments:
Post a Comment